It's an awkward time to be presiding over neighbourhood relations. Writing in Saturday's Guardian, Aung Zaw, a Burmese exile and Editor of the Thailand-based Irrawady magazine, proffered a view that is certain to make Indians squirm. The Burmese leaders, he wrote, "still believe they can count on China, India and Russia to prop up their regime."
From the article: For its own sake, India needs a stable and self-confident Burma that can keep China at bay. Our internal debate must centre on the best way to achieve this objective. The rest is humbug.
I agree. If China takes over Burma or if Burma explodes India will be greatly impacted.
All heck would break out if China took over. Burma already has an elected leader. Now the junta needs to free her.
Burma is also important for India due to the energy resources it has. Iran is putting pressure on India to sign the pipeline deal but India is in a fix because of the nuclear deal so the issue of energy security is high on India's mind so much that it is trying to save itself from supporting any sanctions on Burma.
Iran's bullying needs to take a breather. That's the India-Pakistan-Iran pipeline deal, right?
I think the future's stronger with nuclear power plants.
The pipeline is just an instrument to gather support. It will make India think what to choose, Pipeline or Nuclear deal. But any project of this kind is economically unviable without India involed in it. Threatening India of doing it alone with Pakistan is just a gamble that Iran has to take to counter the international pressure, Iran is hoping to get at least some big nations on its side.
Mridul, Iran blew that deal. The nations are not believing them anymore -- if they ever did.
Do you think India will blow off the nuke power plant deal, ultimately?
I don't think so coz that would be a very foolish strategic decision. The pipeline project isn't a good option considering that the pipeline would be going through Pakistan & there is a high possibility that Iran may see some action jeopardising the supply. I think India should budge to Iranian pressure rather they would challenge Iran to go through with the project with Pakistan, India has almost nothing to lose. The deal has no future since both Iran & Pakistan don't seem to have a bright future.
Much across the region appears grim. The mullahs tend to threaten if someone disagrees. Sooner or later they'll either realize or be made to realize they just don't get it.
India, alone, appears to be moving forward. I think Pakistan will, too, if Musharraf and Bhutto iron out their disagreements. For a dictator, Musharraf certainly lets things happen that he can't favor.
I don't see Pakistan moving forward even if Bhutto comes back. Development needs Democracy & thats a thing which has been highly inconsistent in that country & i think it will as it is.
Musharraf has tried to pull the country forward with women's rights issues, which, of course, the Islamists cannot tolerate. If Pakistan moves backward, its nuclear arsenal will give the region and the world nightmares.
Offers of development -- and the money appears to be trickling -- appear to have been rejected in the tribal areas. The Taliban cannot tolerate it. Acceptance of aid is a death sentence for the tribals.
Well i don't think Musharraf is much interested in doing anything women i do agree though that under his rule situation in Pakistan had improved till the Taliban came in. Most of the aid given to Pakistan (for the rehabilitation of 2005 earthquake) goes into the purchase of weapons or training of militants in PoK - the former Prime Minister of PoK said that there were still training camps in PoK & just 2 weeks back the Indian Army reported that their intelligence agency pointed out that about 600-700 militants were waiting at the LoC & international border to cross over. It's hard to imagine that Pakistan would ever stop these things & while doing all this development seems impossible.
The only way we'll know -- and it appears it will be within the next few days -- is if Musharraf takes off the uniform. "Arab News" reports he and Bhutto have reached an agreement. I read elsewhere that relations with India have been better under Musharraf than his two predecessors.
If it's true that Sharif has aligned with the Islamists, and he doesn't remain in Saudi Arabia, I see heightened violence in the near future.
I do think the tribal areas are wholly out of control; the Taliban and al Qaeda have taken over there.
There were reports just yesterday that the talks between Bhutto & Musharraf have stopped for now without reaching any conclusion. India's relations with Pakistan got worse under Sharif due to the Kargil War with was the brain child of Musharraf, the relations since then seem to have gotten well coz Musharraf didn't plan another Kargil. 9/11 presented itself as a boon for him he got the US on it's side. I don't see a full democracy in Pakistan unless the Islamists go away.
Conflicting reports, apparently.
The Islamists will not go away on their own. They need to be ushered into history. They are not known to compromise.
Yaah i agree so i guess that means Pakistan may never see democracy but it could well see a civil war.
al Qaeda and the Taliban do not pursue war in Pakistan. They seek to destroy it and take over the nuclear arsenal. They seek widespread destruction. Pakistan needs India's support; Musharraf and Bhutto need India's support. It's for India's sake, too.
If Al Qaida isn't destroyed it may well be a problem to India but i don't see India helping Pakistan in any way. Pakistan has been sponsoring terrorism against India for 60 years. The right thing would be that America takes control of the nuclear arsenal & in doing that it would spark off a civil war & thats the time India should move in. Al Qaida in Pakistan isn't India's major problem (at least not as yet, also US is there to tackle that for now) India's major problem is Pakistani rulers' mindset; any Pakistani leader cannot stay in office or have support of general public until he has a plan to 'tackle' India. The main policy of almost all leaders of Pakistan is how to get Kashmir & nothing new is expected from either Bhutto or Sharif. These people need to change their mindsets but thats hindered by the army which wants them to carry on with a Anti-India policy and if they don't see that happening they organise a coup.
al Qaeda has its tentacles spreading into India. It's true about Pakistan intelligence service; it uses separatists to keep violence going. Pakistan worries greatly about India's growing influence in Afghanistan; it sees this as a threat.
The Kashmir train is intended to bring peace, and the elements against it are enemies of both Pakistan and India.
I'd think trying to wrest Pakistan's nuclear arsenal would be disastrous. One of those last options, I suppose. I've never considered it.
Well trains or buses can't bring peace until the heart of the Army changes; the people of both sides are very warm to each other but the problem are the generals in the army.
Mridul, years and years yet remain before the young assume power in their time.
I still think commerce, traffic and trade are tremendous pacifying forces.
Yaah i agree with that. People to people interaction is the best tool to bring peace.
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