The Chinese leadership has feared (not without justification) that an overthrow of an authoritarian Government in Burma by a popular movement for democracy will destabilise its Yunan province, neighbouring Burma. China also realises that an isolated Burmese regime would suit its strategic interests of seeking access to the Indian Ocean, thus reinforcing its 'containment' of India by a presence in the Bay of Bengal. China also believes that its energy security will be enhanced by oil and gas pipelines from Burma to Yunan -- a strategy that will enable it to bypass the Malacca Straits.
The writer counsels patience, and concludes:
. . . if China remains recalcitrant on this issue, Western countries could well use the considerable leverage they have, by calling into question the appropriateness of the forthcoming Olympics being hosted by Beijing. Western pressure on this score did moderate Chinese recalcitrance on the massacres in Darfur.
Yes, the Games are vital. At the same time, though, the majority in China will perceive any boycott as an affront.
It seems to me that that may be the only action that will be effective-- threaten to boycott the Olmpics (and, possibly, China will change its ways a bit-- so that an actual boycott may not occur).
If many countries did this-- it might work. (True China might see it as an affront--- but then they'd have a choice-- and I think they have a lot of prestige tied up in having a successful Olympics).
The Olympics come up in a few months. I don't think there is time to organize a wide boycott. This issue of Burma will take years to solve.
The Olympics come up in a few months. I don't think there is time to organize a wide boycott. This issue of Burma will take years to solve.
Maybe even a threat of a boycott would pressure China a bit? Not necessarily completely solve the problem in Myanmar...but make things a bit better?
I think a boycott will engender resentment and Beijing will diligently work to get even by being even more uncooperative, particularly when it comes to Security Council votes. Could involve Darfur, and definitely will involve Iran.
Might be good to come up with a way to shame Beijing. They don't like that.
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